October 2nd, and we're only 36 short days away from Vote 2000. Let's take a look at where the candidates stand in Web popularity.
These results are based on user searches last week -- the words people typed into the Lycos search boxes from September 17-23. We've compared three groups: the candidates, their vice-presidential nominees, and the parties themselves.
First, the five leading presidential candidates:
47.1% Al Gore (D)
37.7% George W. Bush (Rep.)
9.0% Ralph Nader (G)
4.6% Pat Buchanan (Ref.)
1.6% Harry Browne (L)
If we take just Gore and Bush head-to-head, incidentally, the result is a 53-47% lead for Al Gore.
Now for the veep wannabes:
53.1% Dick Cheney (Rep.)
37.7% Joe Lieberman (D)
5.8% Winona LaDuke (G)
3.4% Ezola Foster (Ref.)
0.0% Art Olivier (L)
That's right: as near as we can tell, nobody searched for Libertarian VP candidate Art Olivier last week. Perhaps that's not surprising, given that we could barely spot Olivier's name on Harry Browne's own campaign site.
And how do the parties compare?
36.9% Republican Party (Rep.)
22.8% Democratic Party (D)
17.4% Green Party (G)
14.6% Reform Party (Ref.)
8.3% Libertarian Party (L)
Al Gore looks to have a firm lead in the presidential race. That's been the case for weeks now, except for the week when George W. made his infamous open-mike slip. Ralph Nader is showing a very respectable 9% of user interest, with Buchanan and Browne bringing up the rear.
In the vice-presidential horse race, the tables are turned: Dick Cheney gets 53.1% of user interest, whupping Lieberman by over 15 points. Winona LaDuke and Ezola Foster are both drawing less action than their running mates (despite their far more interesting names) and Mr. Olivier is positively a drag on his ticket -- or would be, if Harry Browne was getting more than 1.6% himself.
The party comparison is where things get really interesting. Despite Gore's lead over Bush, we see the GOP outpolling the Democrats by 14 points. The Green Party, meanwhile, is stalking the Democrats with a sturdy 17.4% of all party interest.
The Reform Party picks up 14.6% -- more like what Ross Perot had in mind all those years ago -- and even the Libertarians get 8.3%. None of this can be good news for the Democrats, who seem to be the ones losing market share to the GOP.
The latest opinion polls have the presidential race and the race for control of Congress both too close to call. We disagree: based on user searches this week, it looks to us like Gore will win by a close (but not razor-thin) margin -- but the Republicans will easily retain control of Congress.
Remember: you read it here first. And for complete election news, please visit the very thorough Lycos Vote 2000.
