Since our inception, the Lycos 50 has endeavored to catch trends before they started and make bold predictions based on the interests of Lycos users.
We've made a lot of predictions for movies. Sometimes, as in the case of The Grinch and Gladiator, we're right on. Other times, as in the case of Dungeons and Dragons, we've been a little off. But the track record is quite good.
For the last five weeks, we've been monitoring searches for all of this summer's movies. We're going to make predictions for the whole summer based on your searches. Some predictions will seem obvious, while others will seem far-fetched, but at the end of the summer we'll tally them up and see how we did.
The important thing to remember is that the later the movie opens this summer, the less reliable the prediction. With that caveat, here goes.
We've already made our prediction that The Fast and the Furious will be the sleeper hit of the season. Furious queries continue to rise at a furious pace, up another 50 percent last week.
Compare that to two movies opening this Friday, both of which are seeing less search traffic than we expected. The first is the animated Shrek, which received only 67 percent as many searches as Furious last week even though it opens a month earlier. The other is Jennifer Lopez drama Angel Eyes, which got only 22 percent as many searches as Furious.
Searches for J. Lo's last film (The Wedding Planner) were also small, but the film did make some money, so Angel Eyes may do better than these searches show. But a major animated picture aimed at kids should be receiving a lot more searches than Shrek is right now. So we predict that Shrek will be a major disappointment, while Angel Eyes will be a mild one.
Of course, both movies will be hurt by the Mummy Returns juggernaut. Once Mummy recedes, the other movies which look like this summer's biggest blockbusters are Pearl Harbor, Planet of the Apes, and Jurassic Park 3. JP3 has been making the biggest moves. Last week it jumped 160 percent in searches, meaning it received more queries than any current movie except Mummy. It comes out July 20.
Planet of the Apes, is also hot; it opens July 27 but searches rose 50 percent last week. Model Estella Warren, who plays the human female role, looks to be this summer's breakout star. Her searches are up roughly 40 percent per week over the past three weeks. She's now more popular than The Weakest Link.
Two computer games that are perennial favorites at the Lycos 50 are becoming movies this summer. Based on searches that specify only the movie, we predict that Tomb Raider, opening June 15, will be a bigger hit than Final Fantasy, opening July 11. Given online interest in both the game and star Angelina Jolie, we think Tomb Raider will be the summer's most successful movie in regards to performance on the Lycos 50, if not at the box office. (We also have an excellent preview section for it here at Lycos Entertainment).
An interesting movie to watch will be The Animal, with Rob Schneider and Survivor I sweetheart Colleen Haskell. Searches for the film are starting to pick up, but more remarkable is the continued interest in Haskell months after the 15 minutes of the other original castaways were up. We think the Colleen effect will bring a lot of curious moviegoers to The Animal and make it larger than Schneider's last film, Deuce Bigolo. It opens June 1.
As we get into August, it becomes harder to make predictions, but two sequels due in August are standing out right now. Searches seem to indicate that American Pie 2 will be a success while Rush Hour 2 may be a disappointment. The two films open within a week of each other in early August but Pie received five times as many searches last week and has had a stronger growth curve as well. The expectations for Rush Hour 2 are very high, but online interest is just not there -- yet.
We're seeing even stronger disappointment for the remake of the 1970's science fiction sports film Rollerball, which has garnered almost no online interest so far. Planet of the Apes is leaving Rollerball in its big-budget remake dust.
In defense of Rollerball, as well as Rush Hour 2, both films don't open for another three months and have hardly even started advertising and building hype. Nonetheless, the art film Captain Corelli's Mandolin received more interest from Lycos users this week than Rollerball, even though the latter is the kind of movie which is usually big on the Internet. Both films open August 17.
Of course, all summer long you can check Lycos to get movie showtimes, reviews, and more.
TOMORROW: The new Lycos 50 -- will Andrea Thompson's appeal persist?
